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What Does A Trump Administration Mean For Legal Cannabis?

The recent election saw California and three other states join Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Alaska in legalizing recreational use of marijuana. Four more states voted for medical cannabis, as well.

But the burgeoning cannabis industry has relied on an Obama Administration policy of tolerating state laws that regulate a drug that’s still federally illegal. With a new administration taking over in Washington DC, what does this mean for legal pot?

It’s been two years since voters in Oregon approved a measure to allow adults to grow, buy, possess and consume marijuana for recreational use. And, while buying weed in Oregon isn’t quite as simple as walking into your corner 7-Eleven and picking up a six pack, it’s pretty easy.  I recently walked into Breeze Botanicals, in Gold Hill, Oregon.

The owner, Brie Malarkey, greets me, checks me in, inspects my ID then leads me into the locked showroom, where she displays an impressive array of medicinal herbs -- including marijuana -- in glass jars.

After quizzing Malarkey about the effects of various strains, I make my choice: Watermelon Kush.

I pay, put my purchase in the legally-required child-proof container and I’m out the door.

This now-legal transaction happens tens of thousands of times a day in Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Alaska. What’s allowed this to happen, since marijuana remains illegal under federal law, is a 2013 policy memo by then-Deputy  Attorney General James Cole. The so-called Cole memo says that if states make effective efforts to keep pot away from kids, prevent driving while high and address other concerns, the feds will look the other way.

Will a Trump Administration continue that policy? At a rally in Nevada a year ago, candidate Trump gave this answer …

“I think medical should happen, don’t we agree? I mean, I think so. And then I really believe  you should leave it up to the states, it should be a state situation.”

But Trump has expressed less supportive opinions on other occasions and his nominee for attorney general, Alabama senator Jeff Sessions, has very firm ideas of his own. Here’s Sessions at a Senate hearing last April.

“This drug is dangerous, you cannot play with it, it’s not funny, it’s not something to laugh about. And trying to send that message with clarity that good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

John Hudak says it’s hard to say where the Trump Administration will come down on this issue.

“There is reason for us to believe that either outcome,” Hudak says. “Either a pro-states’ rights outcome or a pro-prohibition outcome, could happen.”

Hudak is a senior fellow at the DC-based Brookings Institution who’s made a study of cannabis policy. He points out that the legal foundation on which the marijuana industry rests is pretty precarious.

“The Cole memos can be rescinded by the stroke of the pen of the Attorney General,” he says.

But Troy Dayton isn’t too worried. Dayton is CEO of the Arcview Group, a San Francisco-based investment and market research firm that focuses on cannabis. He acknowledges that if Sessions is appointed AG and if Trump gives him scope to set his own policy, it “would be devastating to the cannabis industry.”

But Dayton remains bullish on the industry’s future. He points to the growing success of legalization measures and to polls showing more than 60 percent of Americans support legal pot.

“There is more political cost to going against the grain here, than going with the grain,” he says.

And, Dayton says, he thinks Trump is unlikely to spend his political capital trying to put the marijuana genie back in the bottle.

San Francisco cannabis attorney Henry Wykowski agrees.

“The more people that know how to grow it and appreciate the benefits of using it, the harder and harder it’s going to be to stop,” he says.

Wykowski has represented many cannabis businesses during years of legal battles with the feds. He notes that since 2014, Congress has passed a budget rider that bars the Justice Department from using federal funds to interfere with state medical marijuana laws. And in 2015, a federal court slapped down a Justice Department attempt to circumvent the measure.

Wykowski thinks it’s likely Congress will extend that protection to states with recreational use laws, as well.

“Why would anybody want to deprive the states of the ability to regulate and tax cannabis and open up that market back to the illegal cartels?” he asks.

At Breeze Botanicals, the herb shop in Oregon, owner Brie Malarkey recognizes the uncertainty that hangs over her business. But, she says, she creates jobs, she pays taxes and works hard to do right by her employees and her clients. And she remains optimistic.

“I keep saying to myself, if you know what you’re doing is right and you’re leading by example and you’re trying to be a good citizen, you just keep fighting for what you know is right.”

About three in five Americans now live in a state with some form of legal cannabis. Analysts say the industry is worth nearly $7 billion this year. And, as the new states – including California – come on line, that value is projected to approach $22 billion by 2020.

         

Brie Malarkey owns Breeze Botanicals, with stores in Gold Hill and Ashland, Oregon.
Liam Moriarty/JPR /
Brie Malarkey owns Breeze Botanicals, with stores in Gold Hill and Ashland, Oregon.
Marijuana gets weighed out for a customer at Breeze Botanicals in Gold Hill, Oregon.
Liam Moriarty/JPR /
Marijuana gets weighed out for a customer at Breeze Botanicals in Gold Hill, Oregon.
 Cannabis strains displayed at Breeze Botanicals in Gold Hill, Oregon
Liam Moriarty/JPR /
Cannabis strains displayed at Breeze Botanicals in Gold Hill, Oregon

Copyright 2016 Jefferson Public Radio

Liam Moriarty
Liam Moriarty has been covering news in the Pacific Northwest for more than 25 years. He's reported on a wide range of topics – including politics, the environment, business, social issues and more – for newspapers, magazines, public radio and digital platforms. Liam was JPR News Director from 2002 to 2005, reporting and producing the Jefferson Daily regional news magazine. After covering the environment in Seattle, then reporting on European issues from France, he returned to JPR in 2013 to cover the stories and issues that are important to the people of Southern Oregon and Northern California. Liam was promoted to JPR News Director on May 1, 2019.