A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Since its founding, the United States has been a nation of immigrants.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Most Americans have ancestors who came from somewhere else, either by choice or by force. As we mark this Independence Day, a big demographic shift is underway. Forecasters say for the first time in more than six decades, more immigrants are likely to leave the U.S. than come in this year, and that could be a drag on the economy.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. So, Scott, what's behind this shift?
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: A, we know that illegal immigration across the southern border has pretty much dried up. The Trump administration has also been narrowing a lot of legal pathways for immigration, like the refugee program and temporary visas. So a joint forecast from the left-leaning Brookings Institution and the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute projects there will be at least 2 1/2 million fewer immigrants coming into the country this year than in 2024. And Brookings' Wendy Edelberg says at the same time, we're seeing more immigrants leaving the U.S., either through deportation or voluntarily.
WENDY EDELBERG: It stands to reason that if you make the United States a really inhospitable place for immigrants, then immigrants, particularly those with really good outside options, those immigrants will leave.
HORSLEY: Edelberg expects the net outflow of immigration to increase next year. The big GOP spending bill that just passed includes a lot more money for immigration enforcement and makes other changes designed to make coming to the U.S. less inviting.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And one thing that has historically drawn people to the U.S. is the strong economy. So what does it mean if that flow is suddenly reversed?
HORSLEY: Immigration has been helping prop up the U.S. economy. We would not have enjoyed the strong job gains in recent years had it not been for the big influx of foreign-born workers. Some of those prominent companies in the U.S. have been started by immigrants. Edelberg says if that pipeline is choked off and more immigrants head for the exits, the U.S. will be left with fewer workers, fewer people spending money and a smaller economy overall.
EDELBERG: I feel strongly that, look, if we decide as a country that we don't want to welcome immigrants, that's a choice we can make. I just want us to make that choice with our eyes wide open.
HORSLEY: Now, the Trump administration has a theory that there are a lot of native-born Americans sitting on the sidelines who could be lured into the job market to take the place of the missing immigrants. There's not a lot of historical evidence of that, but that's the gamble the White House is making here.
MARTÍNEZ: If more people keep leaving the U.S. than actually coming in, I mean, what happens? Does that population drain just continue?
HORSLEY: Not necessarily. The forecasters at Brookings and AEI think after a couple of years of out migration, there will be enough pushback from employers and ordinary citizens that we will start to see some of these policies reversed, and once again, the flow of immigrants into the U.S. will gradually return. But, you know, that's not guaranteed. Edelberg warns that once the U.S. pulls up the welcome mat, immigrants who, by definition, have a lot of get up and go might decide to take their talents elsewhere.
EDELBERG: While we're doing this grand experiment, other countries, if they're clever, will say to the most highly productive, best immigrants, no, come here. We will welcome you with open arms.
HORSLEY: So even if the U.S. eventually changes course, it may not be so easy to win the immigrants back. You know, Adam Smith published his famous economics treatise "The Wealth Of Nations" back in 1776, just a few months before the Declaration of Independence was signed. In the 2 1/2 centuries since then, immigration has been a great source of wealth for this nation. We'll see if that continues.
MARTÍNEZ: Alright. NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thank you.
HORSLEY: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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