STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
It is not hard to find video of ships on fire in the Persian Gulf. Iran has effectively blocked the movement of 20% of the world's supply of oil, along with other kinds of cargo. It's not yet clear how the United States can respond. President Trump has said the U.S. Navy is prepared to escort commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. An analyst elsewhere in today's program reminded us that the United States has done that before, but can it work now? NPR's Scott Neuman looked into it.
Scott, good morning.
SCOTT NEUMAN, BYLINE: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: OK. Has the United States escorted any tankers so far?
NEUMAN: Not yet, although U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X earlier this week that the first tanker had been escorted through the Strait of Hormuz. That message was quickly deleted, and the Trump administration later said the claim was incorrect. But the post sent markets significantly higher, and the White House later said an energy staffer incorrectly captioned the post. Experts say it is still too early to begin such escort operations because the confined geography of the Persian Gulf would leave U.S. Navy vessels exposed to land-based threats from Iran. The eastern side of the Gulf is flanked by Iran's coastline. According to Michael Connell of the Center for Naval Analyses, that geography significantly limits the warning time available to respond to incoming drone and missile attacks. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 20 miles wide at its narrowest point.
MICHAEL CONNELL: And even further in the Gulf, when you're looking at places like Bahrain or UAE, you're only talking about 200 miles - a little over 200 miles.
NEUMAN: And land attacks aren't the only thing ships have to worry about.
INSKEEP: Oh, yeah, absolutely. It's not like the Iranians have a really strong navy where they could send ships out there, but they can lay mines.
NEUMAN: Yeah. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Iran proved effective at using cheap, easily deployed sea mines. Most were simple contact or magnetic mines triggered by a ship's metal hull. Weapons of this type severely damaged a U.S. frigate in 1988. This week, the U.S. central command says it destroyed 16 Iranian mine laying boats. But the experts I spoke with noted that these types of mines can be dropped from the stern of virtually any vessel. Iran also operates small submarines capable of laying mines. The U.S. does have at least three ships that are equipped with - for mine sweeping in the Gulf region. If Iran lays mines, clearing them could take weeks.
INSKEEP: Good to know the U.S. has minesweepers, but where does all of this leave commercial shippers who need to pass through the strait, not to mention the whole world economy that's dependent on them?
NEUMAN: Right. Well, since fighting began, underwriters, such as Lloyd's of London, are already uneasy about the security situation in the Persian Gulf. It's not clear whether Iran has been laying any mines, but if it has, the added risk would further complicate the insurance outlook for tankers transiting the region. Matthew Kroenig is the director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He worked on Iran policy at the Pentagon during the Obama administration. Kroenig thinks mines are a potential problem, but they're part of a bigger picture.
MATTHEW KROENIG: As long as Iran has drones and missiles and continues to fire them, I think many commercial shippers are going to think it's just too dangerous even with an escort to pass through the strait.
NEUMAN: After a conflict is over, even a small number of mines in these waters could undermine confidence in a safe transit and cause more delays in shipping. And that kind of uncertainty could mean even higher prices at the gas pump.
INSKEEP: Yeah, and useful to hear from you that a U.S. Navy escort might just be another target for a cheap Iranian drone. It's a challenge, isn't it?
NEUMAN: It is.
INSKEEP: NPR's Scott Neuman. Thanks so much.
NEUMAN: Thanks, Steve.
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