Pacific gray whales, whose long-distance migrations have transfixed researchers and coastal watchers for decades, are facing unprecedented challenges in their fight for survival.
Disappearing Arctic ice, record numbers of strandings, threats from fishing gear and passing ships and plummeting birth rates all point to what one researcher is calling a “perfectly imperfect storm” of threats to a species riding a roller coaster of population changes.
“Gray whales are absolutely facing an ecological crisis,” Alisa Schulman-Janiger, a long-time California marine biologist and whale researcher told the Lincoln Chronicle. “In the past, this species has always been known as the comeback kids because they always bounce back.”
“This time,” she added, “they aren’t doing that.”
Now, with so many problems and threats facing a gray whale population that currently numbers about 17,750, scientists and researchers are planning a first-of-its kind gathering to figure out what, if anything, can be done.
The formally titled “Range-wide Gray Whale Science Symposium” will be held Sept. 9-10 at the Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport. The event will be available via remote viewing and, while open to the public, is already full for in-person participation. It is sponsored by the Maryland-based Marine Mammal Commission, an independent body overseeing federal regulatory agencies, and hosted by Oregon State University’s Marine Mammal Institute.
Experts from every part of the whales’ historic range, from Mexico to the Arctic, will discuss recent trends in health, feeding behavior, distribution and population dynamics. They will also try to identify priorities for future research, monitoring and coordination among both public and private groups studying gray whale health.
Torres“We think it’s really important that all the experts thinking about this are coming together at the same place and time,” said Leigh Torres, an OSU marine ecologist. “Hopefully, we’ll move the needle forward on some needed next steps.”
One definition of tangible progress could involve efforts by researchers looking into different aspects of whale health to fill gaps in those areas, Torres said.
For instance, some efforts focusing on the loss of Arctic sea ice may not be tied to studies of where gray whales are moving to find new sources of food necessary to sustain them on their round-trip journeys from their wintering lagoons of Mexico, back to their summer feeding grounds off Alaska and northeast Russia.
Those migrations, covering anywhere from 10,000 to 14,000 miles, represent one of the longest annual migrations of any mammal.
Similarly, methods traditionally used to count whale populations may be missing new information, such as tallies using drones, to come up with the best estimates of exactly where and how many, gray whales are actually out there.
“What we know for sure is that the ecosystem that supports the whales is changing so rapidly,” Torres said. “What used to be considered normal has been thrown out the window for us. Our getting together and sharing the best and latest information may be just what we need to give them every opportunity to survive.”
High and dry
What’s undisputed is that the Pacific gray whale population is, by any measure, under extreme stress. The number of whales that have washed ashore during their northbound migration this year makes that amply clear.
A dozen grays have stranded on Oregon’s beach this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Another 30 have washed ashore in Washington, helping bring the total for the entire West Coast to 150.
That’s still below the 179 reported strandings in 2025 and considerably less than the 216 recorded in 2019, according to NOAA data.
Rice“This is the highest in Oregon than I can think of in at least the past 20 years,” said Jim Rice, stranding program manager with the Marine Mammal Institute in Newport. “A typical year averages three. We are obviously far beyond that.”
With the whales’ northbound migration now wrapped up, Rice said he does not expect to see any more new reports of stranded grays.
Still, he said, researchers agree that the reasons for the dramatic increase in strandings are tied to changes in the Arctic. There, gray whales traditionally have fed on the amphipods that carpeted large sections of the basin’s sea floor. The small, shrimp-like creatures were there in the first place due to their ability to filter feed on the decaying bits of algae growing on the underside of sea ice.
Amphipods once carpeted the bottom of the northern Bering Sea but have gone into sharp decline as food for gray whales. (Photo courtesy of Brian Marx) In turn, sharp reductions in sea ice, due to warming water temperatures and climate change, have left gray whales now having to search out new sources of food to sustain not only their migrations, but their ability to reproduce.
From 2019 through 2023, those changes prompted NOAA to declare what’s known as an UME – an unusual mortality event. UME’s open the way for funding and expertise to determine exactly what is causing increased mortality levels.
A mortality event for gray whales was also declared in 1999 and ended in 2000 without determining exactly why whales were dying at larger-than-usual numbers.
A new event, however, will not be declared this time around because scientists have an understanding as to why strandings and population decreases are occurring, said Michael Milstein, a NOAA spokesperson based in Portland.
“Currently, many stranded whales are under weight and malnourished, which is linked to the availability of food in the Arctic,” he said. “So the causes are continuing and remain the same. They don’t meet the standard for declaring a new UME.”
Counting whale questions
Very much on the table, Milstein said, is an examination whether whale population counts are accurate. The accuracy of those counts is expected to be taken up at the Newport symposium in September.
“There may be a number of things going on here, and we recognize that our counts may not be reflecting what’s happening in the population,” Milstein said. “Are whales changing their migratory behavior? Are they not finding food in the same places they have relied on? We are definitely testing some of those questions.”
His comments came just after NOAA released a new “abundance estimate” suggesting whale numbers have increased since last year.
Researchers just put the gray whale population at between 15,930 to 20,530, or an average of about 17,750 gray whales. That represented a jump from last year’s estimate – one of the lowest since counting began in the late 1960s – at between 11,690 to 13,190, or about 12,890 whales, according to NOAA data.
The agency called the “apparent increase” good news, but added that the seeming disparity between this year and last “raises questions about the assumptions we have tested and used in the past to inform our analytical approaches to the population estimate.”
That is to say, are the counts accurate?
“We don’t have the complete answers at this point,” Milstein said. “But that’s exactly what we’re trying to figure out.”
Mother and child reunion
Changing behaviors, altered habitat preferences and new food sources are just some of the reasons the Newport symposium could help lead to better understandings of what’s going on with gray whales, said Schulman-Janiger, the California-based whale researcher.
But when it comes to new and unexpected situations that may or may not benefit from further study, she tossed out a recent scenario that most of her colleagues have never encountered – a gray whale calf swimming peacefully and in calf-like position alongside a killer whale.
It occurred this spring and was reported on the Facebook page of a California whale-watching group.
“Here was this newborn gray whale calf, with virtually no blubber, just swimming peacefully with a killer whale,” Schulman-Janiger said. “And it wasn’t being eaten. In terms of whale behavior, it’s the strangest thing I’ve ever seen.”
OSU’s Torres, when told of the incident, agreed.
“Maybe they were just keeping it for a snack,” she said. “But that’s the weirdest thing I’ve heard.”
Using the incident to sum up everything that has led to this fraught moment, she added, “These are weird times, that’s for sure.”
This story was originally published on LincolnChronicle.org and is used with permission.
