As Oregon’s rainy season approaches, concerns about how much moisture could come this winter are rising.
A strong El Niño is expected this year, which will likely bring above-normal temperatures through the winter.And that can be just as big of a concern for drought conditions next summer as moisture levels.
“We’ve seen both [dry and wet winters] in those conditions in Oregon,” said Oregon Water Resources Department public information officer Jason Cox. “The watchout in either scenario, when you have the warmer-than-usual winter, is that the snowpack melts off earlier than usual. And historically low snowpack is part of the reason that we’re in the drought situation that we’re in."
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Data, 91% of Oregon is now in some form of drought.
That drought has resulted in the draw-down of reservoirs to lower-than-normal levels, and a dry winter would further compound the issues caused by a warm winter.
“I think a concern is that, if we don’t get those reservoirs recharged over the winter, we could have less in storage for 2027’s high water use season,” said Cox. “Which could exacerbate any drought conditions that would be on the landscape anyway.”
This year’s lack of snowpack has also been mentioned as a reason for a more severe fire season as it leads to reduced soil moisture and perennial streamflows earlier than normal.
It could also mean further reductions for water users whose rights have less seniority, as they are often the first to see their allotments cut.
