Political analysts have softened their bullishness on Gov. Tina Kotek, and one candidate’s polling suggests a tight margin.
Democrats appear to have political winds at their back this year, but the party can’t take the race for Oregon governor for granted.
That’s the message of a one-two punch of new developments in the race between Gov. Tina Kotek and her Republican challenger, state Sen. Christine Drazan, this week.
First, Drazan’s campaign has been circulating internal polling that suggests the candidate could be leading Kotek in the race — a result that, while inconclusive, has Republicans privately ecstatic.
The poll of 600 Oregon voters in late June showed 48% favored Drazan, 44% favored Kotek and 6% were undecided, according to high-level results released by the campaign. The final 2% either refused to answer or indicated support for a third party.
The survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a well-regarded polling firm with ties to Republicans. It had a margin of error of 4%, meaning either candidate could be ahead. The poll was first reported by The Oregonian/OregonLive.
Meanwhile, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating of the race Friday, nudging the contest from “Solid D” to “Likely D”. It’s the second outfit to alter its outlook recently. The nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections bumped the race to “Lean D” from “Solid D” late last month.
“Democrats have a developing headache in the Beaver State,” Inside Elections wrote in its June 25 edition. “Kotek is unpopular and voters may be open to change after decades of Democratic control.”
Republicans said this week those developments lend credence to their theory of this year’s race: that Oregonians are fuming at the condition of their state, and have lost faith in Kotek to turn things around after almost four years in office.
“Voters have had enough of Tina Kotek’s failure, enough to buck any pro-Democrat national trend that might exist,” a fundraising memo from Drazan’s campaign said.
Kotek’s popularity has consistently ranked near the bottom of governors around the country. Polling conducted earlier this year by the firm Morning Consult found 48% of Oregon voters approved of her job performance, while 42% disapprove.
Drazan’s poll offered a far less charitable picture, suggesting 57% of voters disapprove of Kotek, and just 38% approve. Drazan’s internal survey turned up a net favorable position for the GOP candidate, with 33% of respondents saying they approve of her and 26% reporting disapproval.
Drazan is less well known to voters, however, with fewer than 80% of respondents reporting they’d heard of her, compared to 99% with Kotek.
Democrats this year have so far pursued a single-minded strategy, linking Drazan to unpopular President Donald Trump at any chance they get. Kotek’s campaign stuck to that message Thursday.
“Christine Drazan is desperate to show that she has a shot, but the reality is she is out of step with Oregon values,” a campaign spokesperson, Federico Araujo, said in a statement. “As Oregon voters learn more about how Drazan has sided with Trump’s dangerous and unpopular agenda, they’re going to remember exactly why they rejected her four years ago.”
The campaign declined to discuss or release its own internal polling.
Numbers suggesting Drazan could have a lead might be surprising in a state that hasn’t had a Republican governor in four decades — especially in a year when national political momentum appears to favor Democrats.
But Oregon has seen similar dynamics before, with deflating outcomes for the GOP.
In the 2018 gubernatorial race — another midterm election during a Trump presidency — polls suggested Republican Knute Buehler was within striking distance of Democratic Gov. Kate Brown in the run-up to election day. Political analysts labeled the race a “toss up.”
But on election night the result was never in question. Buehler wound up conceding the race shortly after the first returns were released.
In 2022, the last time Kotek and Drazan squared off for the governor’s mansion, some polls ahead of Election Day suggested the Republican might have an edge. Later polling turned toward Kotek, however, and Drazan lost by around 3.5%. That race also featured Betsy Johnson, a well-funded nonaffiliated candidate.
That history has analysts still giving a strong edge to Kotek. “Oregon Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is a clear favorite in her bid for a second term,” the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia wrote Thursday, “but there’s an outside chance she could lose in what will be a rematch with her main 2022 opponent, Republican Christine Drazan.”
Drazan’s supporters believe voters are wary enough of Kotek that this year can be different, but there is a lot of campaigning to do before the Nov. 3 election.
Kotek currently has a money edge, having raised more than $6.6 million since January 2025. Drazan has collected around $4.5 million during the same period, but had to spend most of that sum to prevail in a competitive Republican primary in May.
As of the most recent reporting, Kotek has more than $5 million on hand, compared to just over $1 million for Drazan. Tens of millions more will flow into the race before a single vote is cast.
This story comes to you from the Northwest News Network, a collaboration between public media organizations in Oregon and Washington.