Oregon’s drought conditions improved slightly last month, though the majority of the state remains dry.
According to the first U.S. Drought Monitor Report for October, the 3.9% of the state that had the highest level of drought were downgraded from exceptional to extreme drought.
While conditions improved, thanks to much of the state being cooler than normal in September and portions receiving measurable rain, it is likely that conditions will not continue to improve in October.
"With the dry and warm conditions that we’re seeing so far in October, I suspect there won’t be any improvements for this month,” said Oregon Water Resources Department Hydrologist Cameron Greenwood. “Although, with a good rainstorm, that can change. But we aren’t really seeing that in the near-term forecast."
57.6% of Oregon remains in some level of drought, with only 1.5% of Oregon not being classified as abnormally dry or worse.
Weather conditions that will allow drought to persist are expected to continue through the rest of 2026, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Seasonal Drought Outlook.
Beyond that, Greenwood said drought conditions are still difficult to predict due to a strong El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean.
There have been three similarly strong El Niños in recent history: 1983, 1998 and 2016. All three resulted in at least near-normal precipitation totals and abnormally warm temperatures that could affect snowpack.
Last winter’s snowpack was historically bad, which led to the state drawing down water levels in many reservoirs lower than it normally would.
"And so if we don’t see recharge into those reservoir systems, building up the storage for that subsequent irrigation season in 2027, we could see even more impacts to irrigators," said Greenwood.
That could mean a more significant impact on farmers and others who rely on irrigated water in the summer.
Greenwood said some areas saw the regulation of those with junior water rights begin four to eight weeks earlier than normal, with cuts going deeper than normal.
“This last year, we had water rights holders that were senior enough that they had never been regulated, and this was the first year that they had ever been regulated,” he said.
The result could be some farmers opting to skip the upcoming season and take a smaller loss rather than investing in a crop that eventually fails due to lack of water.
