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MICHAEL DUNNE: I'm Michael Dunne. What does a dentist drill? Taxes and the DMV have in common? Well, to look at recent polling, they're seemingly more popular than our two main political parties. Indeed, both Republican and Democratic leaders have reached new highs in low public opinion, so much so that people who now identify as independents are at record highs. Could such dissatisfaction with our historic political parties lead to the formation of a real third party today on the show, you'll hear from professors at the University of Oregon and Oregon State and get their perspective on the decline in party popularity and the rise of independent voters. There are real structural impediments to a third party in American politics. Could the Trump administration be the linchpin for that change? Chandler James, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Oregon. Chandler, thanks so much for coming on and talking with us.
CHANDLER JAMES: Hi, Michael, thanks for having me on.
MICHAEL DUNNE: I saw recently that Gallup released information showing that there's a record share of voters, like 45% who now identify themselves as politically independent. I kind of wanted to get your read. Why do you think that is?
CHANDLER JAMES: I think that the main reason is that Americans are disaffected with the two major parties. There's a representation gap. I saw a statistic that I think is appropriate for this conversation. 62% of Americans say that the two parties are doing a poor job and a third party is needed, According to a Gallup poll. And I think that this is a very striking result that provides direct evidence to suggest that people are kind of feeling like the two parties don't represent them.
MICHAEL DUNNE: In the information that I saw showed that it really kind of skews younger? I.e. a lot more younger voters are saying they're independent. Is, is that because their worldview has been perhaps brought up by a very polarized and like you said, dis affected dissatisfied stance with the current Republican and Democratic dominant political parties?
CHANDLER JAMES: Young people are typically more likely to identify as independents, okay? That is partly has to do with the fact that they are younger, and so they have less political experience that informs their preferences and the ideology, okay? And so, think about it. You know, as a young person, you're still kind of figuring your way out in the world. And people, I think young people tend to identify as an independent as a way to kind of recognize that uncertainty, however it is the case that the numbers of independence are growing. And so, I think that at least some of the incidents of growing independence among young people has to do with the political environment in which they raised. Were raised. I think that you can bucket the independents into two groups, younger, kind of more diverse in terms of race and ethnicity, okay? And they are more swing voters, right? They tend to, they like the Republicans on some issues, and the Democrats and other issues. And then there's a group of people that I think speak to what you were getting at, Michael, which, which, you know, who feel disillusioned with the political system, and they're kind of anti, anti-system. And these, these voters tend to be whiter and more male who are kind of embracing a kind of independent affiliation these days. So, I think that it is the case that no doubt the political context has a. Is affecting the uptick in people who identify as independents, but it's also just important to remember that, you know, people might affiliate that way because they're still shopping for a political home and they don't want to tie themselves down at this point.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Okay, kind of getting more specific about independent voters. You know, how do you define them? And obviously, in the name, it makes a certain amount of sense that they're independent of a political party. But is it? Is it that they have a set of values and they're looking for a candidate that matches those, versus perhaps somebody who's like, oh, the Democratic Party matches my values, or the Republican Party matches my values? How do you know, give us your definition and what a what an independent voter looks like?
CHANDLER JAMES: So, I'm a political scientist, and we love public opinion surveys, okay, to try to understand the world, and so one of the things that US political scientists have to do when we're trying to get information about someone's political identity. We first asked them if they are a Republican, an independent, a Democrat or something else, and then if they select independent, then we ask them if they lean toward the Democrats or the Republicans, more or neither. And when you add this additional level, this additional question, what we find is that most people who identify as an independent, that is like if they don't identify affiliate with one part one of the two major parties, when push comes to shove, they act almost indistinguishably from the party, from people who affiliate explicitly with the party. So, what this suggests is that a lot of independents are, are not true independents, in the sense that they're not pure independence, but they, they're, you know, they lean toward one party or another. But there is an instant, there are, in some cases, people who, you know it, they are independent in the sense that, like, they don't lean toward either one of the two parties. So, when I talk about it, I'm thinking about it in terms of how respondents self-identify when they fill out some service.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Are there, I don't know, assumptions you can make about some independent voters, i.e., is it that they might feel politically homeless with the two parties, because they tend to be, Oh, I like the fiscal conservatism of the Republicans, but I want more social liberal policies that I see in the Democrats. Are those kinds of big issues. Does that sort of give an indicator for a political scientist such as yourself is as who's going to become an independent voter and stay there?
CHANDLER JAMES: Yeah, that's it. That's a great question. Michael, independents are typically people who are cross pressured. They like, you know, some aspect of the Democratic Party, but they don't like other parts. And they like the Republicans on some issues, but they're not totally okay with other elements of their agenda, and often there's kind of an equal, similar pool in both direction for a lot of these independent voters. So, it's not just that they have kind of competing the they have values that the parties are kind of in conflict over, but also, they're important to the respondent. And you know, the tug of one party is kind of countered by the tug of others the other party, so they feel genuine. Extremely ambivalent because of their cross pressure.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Can this lead somewhere if more and more people are identifying as independents, and I realize independent isn't necessarily a party, but is it possible that if more and more people say, I don't like the dems, I don't like the R's. I want to vote independent. Does is that the way that perhaps a third party, a viable third party, can arise in American politics?
CHANDLER JAMES: Well, from the research that I've seen, you know, there's this high level of incidence of people identifying as independents, yes, but at the same time, these Americans are not committed to third parties, and one of the reasons why third parties have failed to gain traction in the United States is because of this thing, because of a fear of a wasted vote, this thing called Dover Jay's Law. And in this law basically states that, you know, in a winner take all system, the number in such as ours, our own, for if there's only one seat for a district, then the number of viable parties is two, because if you vote for the person. If you don't vote for the most viable option, then there's a good chance that you're least likely the person that you like least will win. And so, what people do is they choose the their most preferred candidate who has the best chance of winning, okay? And what that leads to is a situation in which, in equilibrium, there's usually only two viable political parties for a system where there's only one represent one winner per district, okay, and so, you know this is, this is a product of strategic voting on behalf of voters, but also strategy in terms of elites, people who donate money, People who are office holders who seek office, and so it creates this situation in which the forces at play strongly tend toward two parties. Okay, so I think it's unlikely that a third party will compete with the two major parties, but I do think that this growing dissatisfaction will lead to changes in the two parties.
MICHAEL DUNNE: He's Chandler James, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Oregon, Professor. Thank you so much for coming on and talking with us.
CHANDLER JAMES: Hey, happy to be here. Thank you for having me on, Michael.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Let's now talk about the possibility of a third party ever taking root. Professor Christopher Stout, associate professor teaches in the School of Public Policy at Oregon State University. Chris, always great to talk to you. Thanks so much for coming on and chatting with us.
CHRISTOPHER STOUT: Thank you so much for having me. I'm excited to be here.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Yeah. So recent data from Gallup shows that there's a huge amount of people who now identify themselves as politically independent, and you know, it's really grown a lot, and we're certainly seeing seemingly a lot of dissatisfaction with the two political parties, Democrat and Republican. I'm wondering, is it possible that this groundswell of independent voters, is it possible that that could lead to the creation of a viable third party in the United States?
CHRISTOPHER STOUT: I think it's always difficult for one a third party to come in and supplant one of the two major parties. Historically, there have been examples of competitive third parties. The turn of the 20th century, we've had the Populist Party, which competed against the Democrats in the south in the 1990s you've had presidential candidates like Ross Perot and the Reform Party receive a sizable amount of the vote. I think that's probably where we will see third parties even with high levels of dissatisfaction now that there will be sporadic instances in which they can be competitive. But it's hard for them to build a sustainable base for several reasons. One of the main reasons is even if people are dissatisfied with their party, they're so their partisanship is part of their identity. So, they could be unhappy with Democrats and they can be unhappy with Republicans, but at the end of the day, it's hard for them to leave those labels behind and join third party, okay? And the other major reason for this is that it's just, if the third of a third party comes up with an issue that is very it gains a lot of support, then the major parties will Co Op that issue and make it harder for a third party to survive.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Are independent voters, this may be a difficult analogy, but is it kind of like a, like an a la carte menu? Like, I want a little bit from this party, I want a little bit from that party, you know? Is it that, you know, there are big, big issues that each party speaks to, but not enough so that I'm going to say, Okay, well, that's enough for me. I'm going to be a Democrat or I'm going to be a Republican. What's the calculus like?
CHRISTOPHER STOUT: Yeah, I think historically, the way you describe independent voters is what, what I that I would think of as an independent voter, is like, you like some issues that one party caters to, and you like others that the other party is is associated with. But I think independent party voters today tend to be not dissimilar from partisans, but they dislike the labels of political parties. So, people will say, No, I'm an independent. I will vote differently in in any given election. But then if you ask who they voted for in the last let's say four presidential elections, independent voters tend to be consistent. They consistently vote for the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. They largely just reject the labels, rather than that, they are these cross pressured voters who vote for Democrats in one election and Republicans in a different election.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Okay, and certainly internalizing all that you've said. But I do wonder, you know, the Trump presidency has been such a shock to the system, our body politic, and certainly, a lot of people, are extremely dissatisfied with what the opposition, the Democrats, are doing to counter the Trump administration. Again, taking into account all that you've said, Is it possible that that this moment is different for the formation of a third party?
CHRISTOPHER STOUT: I think we if we look at the parties now, they're not the same parties that they were, I think 10-15, years ago. So, in terms of having a new third party come up and win elections, I think that's somewhat unlikely. But do I think the parties transform from the inside, right? So, if we think about the Tea Party as kind of a competitor to the Republican Party in the 2010s the Tea Party basically moved into the Republican Party and took those positions. If we think about mag and Trump's movement within the Republic, Republican Party in 2016 those were competing factions, but over time, MAGA just took over the Republican Party, and that now dominates its ideology. We see this happen on the left with the Democrats as well. You have justice Democrats who are challenging what some people would say are establishment Democrats in the primaries and winning, and so they're kind of changing the platforms of these parties from within. So, while we're not seeing third parties win these elections, we are seeing these groups of voters who are dissatisfied with both parties move within each of these groups and change their platforms. Okay? And so that will continue, because I think people now are largely dissatisfied with the way things are going, and they don't want the status quo. And so, there's opportunities for activists to get into these parties and kind of change what they're going to stand for.
MICHAEL DUNNE: I'm wondering too, like, for example, the House of Representative is incredibly close the Republicans have a razor thin majority. Could a block of congress people maybe even identifying themselves as independent - could that become a truly historic way in which to get things done, if I don't know, 20 congress people decide we're going to be independents and so political parties, Democrats, Republicans, you have to come to us to get anything passed. Is, is that? Is it possible that something like that could be created?
CHRISTOPHER STOUT: Certainly, and I think we see it happen all the time, where you have pivotal players and divided congresses play a large role in the outcomes, right? So, if we think about, most recently, the build back better and other initiatives by the Biden administration, players like Kristin cinema and Joe Manchin in West Virginia played. A sizable role in what was going to be in that legislation. We can see a lot of that happening today within the Republican Party, where you have people like Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Donnelly, in a in a recent in a recent debate about presidential war powers. And so, you can see some of these key players extract concessions to try to get things done, and we have seen movements within both the Senate and the House recently of bipartisan groups trying to shape legislation. We saw that in the healthcare debate around the government shutdown, and we've seen it most recently around the War Powers resolution, with Tim Kaine and Rand Paul working together. So, I think this is where we can see, maybe not necessarily third parties, but kind of rogue members of political parties be effective in changing legislation.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Okay, professor, my last question for you is this, and I know that this is conjecture and a big if, but you know, if somehow a third party could rise, what could it mean to American politics?
CHRISTOPHER STOUT: Oh, it would be huge. I think it would. It would definitely challenge the parties to do things differently, right? And so again, if we think about this historically, there's ideas that get ignored, and a third parties come up and make these issues salient so that parties have to do something about them. And so probably the most recent example of a true third party coming into dominance would be the Republican Party during the period of slavery. The Whigs during that period of time, ignored the issue of slavery, didn't take a strong stance on it, and as the public became more interested in this topic, the Republican parties were the only alternative to Democrats who were the pro slavery party at that period of time, and so the parties ignore what people want for too long a period of time. There is an opportunity for a third party to come up, and this could be with affordability, questions around affordability, this could be questions around health care. If parties don't get something done, it's possible that a third party can rise up and take these positions, and then that would either force parties to adapt or die off.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Interesting, interesting. He's professor Christopher stout with Oregon State University. Chris always great to talk to you. Thanks so much for coming on.
CHRISTOPHER STOUT: Thanks so much for having me.
MICHAEL DUNNE: That's the show for today. All episodes of Oregon On the Record are available as a podcast at KLCC.org. Tomorrow on the show, you'll hear from a journalist who applied for a job at ICE despite massive red flags that should have rendered her application void, but was accepted anyway. And we'll check in with Oregon Senator Ron Wyden on the one-year anniversary of Trump's second term. I'm Michael Dunne, host of Oregon On The Record, thanks for listening
