Home sales in the Eugene-Springfield area decreased in the past two months at a rate beyond normal seasonal slowing, according to the latest data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service.
September’s year-over-year pending and completed home sales were down 21.2% and 9.7%, respectively, while pending and completed sales in October dropped 22% and 23.1%, respectively.
Typical seasonal trends have home sales peaking in the summer months and bottoming out at the start of the year, but the recent decrease is beyond normal seasonal adjustments, according to Mara Gregory, the incoming president of the Springfield Realtors Association.
The decrease may not mean a notable drop in prices is coming. Median sale prices were up 0.6% in September and down 2.0% in October.
"We might have a small market correction in price, where we can’t be aggressive with our pricing right now, we’re going to have to be realistic,” said Gregory. “But it’s not those same factors that we’re seeing that are indicative of a crash."
Gregory said a notable lack of inventory leading up to the drop means the market can see a drop in sales and maintain prices.
“We aren’t seeing buyers feel like they need to make a decision right at the house,” she said. “So seeing buyers sit on something for maybe even a week or so and circle back is more common right now.”
Inventory reached 3.8 months in October, which is approaching the 5-6 months of inventory that is considered a balanced market.
While the number of homes on the market has decreased, those homes are less likely to be for sale for an amount close to the area’s $440,000 median price.
“In October, the homes that fell into that $400,000-$500,000, there were 84 of them to choose from, whereas last year there were 103,” said Gregory. “So a little bit less of [median-priced] homes to choose from, but that’s still a pretty decent amount. Years ago we may have had 25 [median-priced] homes to choose from.”
Home affordability in the area has improved in the past year, according to National Association of Realtors data, but remains below what is affordable to most households.
According to NAR’s affordability index, what a median income family can afford to spend on housing is about 13% below what it would need to spend on a mortgage for a median priced home, assuming a 20% down payment.
