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Michael Dunne: I'm Michael Dunne. I was a political science major in college, and I have a decent grasp on politics and political theory. But that certainly doesn't mean I can't figuratively go back to school from time to time and learn or relearn important lessons about our political system. Today on the show, you can join me in a lesson about midterm politics from an expert at the University of Oregon. With a very consequential election coming up next week, Professor Chandler James joins me today to give us a kind of midterms 101. And while much of the media and political prognosticators have shouted about the historic nature of next Tuesday's election, Professor James reminds us the political gravity and dynamics are not easy to upend, and that this upcoming midterm may follow the familiar path of midterms past. Assistant Professor Chandler James at the University of Oregon, a professor in political science. Professor, it's always great to talk to you. Thanks so much for coming on.
Chandler James: Thanks for having me on again, Michael.
Dunne: Yeah. So maybe remind folks what are the dynamics of a typical midterm election? What kind of usually happens? I'm thinking about you know what happens to the president in in in power, and also what does turnout kind of typically look like?
James: So, during midterms, every member of the House of Representatives is up for re-election, so the House is technically, at least, up for grabs, and it's usually a hard-fought contest between the two major parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, to control the House of Representatives. 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election. They get re-elected every six years. They're on staggered elections, and so, you know, a new crop of senators or newly elected senators can change the composition of the Senate. But the president is not on the ballot. However, depending on the composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the president has a lot at stake in midterm elections. So, for example, in this upcoming midterms, President Trump has the Republican House and Senate up at stake. Currently, the Republicans control the House and the Senate, and they are supportive of the administration, but if the Democrats take over one or both branches of the legislature, Trump is going to have some opposition in in in D.C. with real power. The House of Representatives and the Senate have constitutional authority to hold the president accountable, and a less supportive Senate, a less supportive House of Representatives can make the administration's life much more difficult. So, presidents have a lot at stake; they want to win, but what typically happens in midterm elections is that the president's party loses seats. This is generally the case, and if we hear the details, it makes a lot of sense. One of the things is is that one of the reasons why presidents lose seats is because the president is in charge. They're making decisions. They're supporting laws. They're taking actions, and for people who are really dissatisfied with the way things are going, dissatisfied with how the president is handling their job, what they can do, since they can't vote on the president, is they can vote against the president's party.
Dunne: My follow-up question is: Do you anticipate that this is going to be a typical midterm? And I, of course, I ask that question sort of under the, I don't know, whatever you want to say shroud or cloud of a very activist president who is doing some things in advance of the midterm election, which and I leave it to you because I know you're a you're a presidential historian as well. I don't know as has ever been done before. Has a president ever filed a lawsuit against a state because he may or may not like the outcome?
James: I'll be honest with you, Michael. I don't think that this election is that much different than most elections, midterm elections, in the sense that, like broadly, I expect the Republicans to lose seats, and you know, in part because of public dissatisfaction with the administration. So, people might be historically dissatisfied. But, you know, Obama in 2010, for example, lost a bunch of seats, and famously said that the Democrats took a shellacking after that. So, in in the sense that in the kind of broadest terms possible, I think that the dynamics are probably similar. I forgot the thing that I wanted to answer in the first question— Is that the people who show up are slightly different in midterms than in presidential elections. So, you know, the people who show up in midterm elections tend to be richer, more politically engaged, more partisan, older. You know, these are the folks who are just the most likely to vote, and so the general election has a broader electorate, and I think what's distinct about this election, as it relates to Trump, is just the nature of his political coalition. So he's a Republican president, but so many of his voters that he activated are kind of atypical voters, people who might not vote regularly, or they only vote for Trump, or you know, he was able to mobilize a lot of people who don't typically participate in elections to vote for him. So, what we see in this 2026 election is Trump in places like Mississippi, for example, and other quote unquote red states or states that are predicted to overwhelmingly support Republican candidates. Trump is spending a lot of time there, and there's two explanations for that. One, the first explanation is that Republicans feel really endangered, and they're kind of protecting what's what was once considered safe states, safe districts, sure safe seats, and so you know that's the kind of more typical conventional explanation situation. But what's unique, I guess, about the situation is that Trump has this political coalition that really is enthusiastic about him. So maybe his overall poll numbers are pretty bad, but among the people who like him, they really like him. And so the second explanations for why he's in places like Mississippi, kind of related but different, is that he is trying to get his voters, who, you know, because Trump isn't on the ballot, might not feel too much affinity with you know the Republicans other, he's trying to get them to go vote and support Republicans as a way to support him. Because you know, if the Democrats take over the Senate or the House of Representatives, it's going to make Trump's life a lot more difficult. There's going to be lots of investigations. His administration will have a lot less flexibility, and so Trump really wants his voters to go vote for Republicans. Not only because you know he's a Republican, but because it is in his personal political interest to have a Republican. He wants to pull every available lever that he can to try to win, going so far as to you know create sow doubt so that if he loses or people that he supports loses, he has some mechanism to try to change that result.
Dunne: Structural question: Can he? And what I mean by that is, if he doesn't like the outcome, what can the president do with regard to results from the upcoming midterms.
James: The elections say, or the Constitution says that the elections are to be run and administered by the states. I suppose he can file lawsuits on behalf of the government, and use whatever machinery that he has to make it more difficult. But I think ultimately, he's constitutionally limited. He can use the bully pulpit to question the results and sow doubt, but I think as far as you know, overturning the election through some constitutional means, I don't know if he has a lot of actual authority there.
Dunne: If the Democrats do well and win a lot of seats, do you believe that the constituency of the Democratic Party, do you think a lot of them are going to the polls, pulling levers for House members, members of the Senate who are Democrats? Do you think that they're pulling those levers because they want those elected representatives to really go after the president, do you anticipate a lot of people are going to vote and maybe have more energy for a midterm election than maybe is typical because they want the House to impeach the president and the Senate to vote for impeachment? Is that do you think that that's a strong motivator for people on the on the left?
James: That's a great question. So, but it's almost impossible to really answer, you know, because when someone votes, they're just picking between candidates. They're not, you know, detailing additional statements about what they think the legislators should do once in office. That's ultimately left to the judgment of the office holders, the people who are elected, to interpret what the election results mean. A lot of people are running campaigns about corruption, negative ads about Trump and the direction of the country, and so if the people who are making those claims kind of systematically are winning at higher rates, that could be you know we might be able to infer that that's what the public wants. But I think just from the votes, it's hard to tell what the voters mean when they vote for the a party opposing candidates opposing Trump beyond they didn't vote for the people who were of the same party as Trump.
Dunne: Okay. Do you think that perhaps undecided or independent voters in this coming midterm is it is it the simplest explanation that they perhaps those independent voters or those undecideds who might have voted for Trump in in in the last presidential election, do you think that economics is always sort of the best clue in terms of how an undecided or independent voter might vote? And I'm thinking about the high cost of various things and the high rate of inflation. Is that is that the best indicator? You know, experts like you, might look at and say, okay, this is this is the issue that's going to that that's going to move swing voters one way or the other.
James: So, in this, the spirit of your statement is right. I wouldn't say it's always the best, but generally, economic factors, you know, inflation, retrospective judgments about the how well the economy is faring, you know, the unemployment rate. These economic factors are usually the best indicators for determining whether or not an incumbent will lose an election. So, is it is, and one of the things that you hear a lot is that gas prices, people politicians really care about the cost of gas because it affects pretty much everybody. And you know, if gas goes up, then most people are hurting economically. So, yes, I think that economic conditions are is a powerful predictor, but it's not the only thing, right? There, there are other factors at play that can definitely swing voters. You know, people care about the state of democracy. People care about civil rights and civil liberties. People care about war casualties. So, if we're at war and people start coming back maimed or even in in in caskets, that can negatively impact elected officials who supported the war in subsequent elections. So economic issues a major predictor. Usually, that's a good, good kind of first starting place. But there are other factors that also matter a great deal to the public.
Dunne: Sure, sure. I'm wondering how the concept of fear might factor into this midterm election, and here's what I mean. Like I've talked to our Secretary of State Tobias Reed about fear about the mail system, and he even is advising Oregon voters to drop your ballot off at the ballot box just to be sure. Certainly, we've heard reports that the Department of Justice is looking at sending you know polling observers even here to Multnomah County, Oregon, I should say. You know, and there's been this idea that that the president, with his rhetoric, has certainly perhaps ramped up the idea of fear. Is fear a concern in terms of suppressing vote, or is fear perhaps an accelerant to make more people go out and vote during a you know a midterm election, which maybe doesn't get the same level of attention or voting numbers as a presidential election?
James. I love this question. I think that this is a fantastic question, Michael. Emotions are a powerful force in politics, in elections. They can mobilize people. People can get really excited, or happy, or anxious, or fearful. And these different emotional states lead to kind of different patterns of behavior, but anger and fear, two, typically, emotions associated with kind of negative negativity, are actually very powerful mobilizing forces for participation, and so I think that these concerns that Trump is going to go after the mail-in voting system here in Oregon, which I think a lot of people in the state take some pride in, because we have really high voting participation rates. I think that that can be a mobilizing force for folks, and you know the same thing goes with Trump's use of fear, right? Deployment of fear, saying that if people who support him and his policies, his vision, don't go out and. Vote, you know, people they'll be kind of overrun by other voters who, in his, you know, vision of the story, are voting in ways that are inconsistent with fairness. So yes, I think that's probably in that that's where my mind would go in terms of how does fear play into this particular election, and then your point at the end is exactly the right one, which is in a lower turnout election, getting people more like just getting more people to the polls on your side matters even that much more because the margins are smaller, so in midterms. So, I think that like I think that fear is being you, and maybe some of these fears are justifiable to some degree. But you know I think it's primarily being used as a way to get people activated and to the polls.
Dunne: Well, I could talk to you about this all day, but we've run up against it. But I'm really going to want to have you back after the midterms are settled and we know more about what the legislative agenda is going to be. Dr. Chandler James, assistant professor of political science from the U of O professor. As always, thanks so much for coming on.
James: Of course, of course, happy to come on anytime. Thanks again for having me.
Dunne: That's the show for today. All episodes of Oregon On The Record are available as a podcast at klcc.org. Tomorrow on the show, you'll meet the president of Oregon's premier hospital and medical university, Oregon Health and Sciences University, and learn about his vision for the institution. I'm Michael Dunne, host of Oregon On The Record. Thanks for listening.
