Widespread tariffs could obstruct Oregon’s economy and deal a blow to the state’s manufacturing sector — similar to how import taxes affected the state during the first Trump administration.
“In 2018, we saw a real downshift in the economy, especially in the state economy,” Oregon’s chief economist Carl Riccadonna told OPB. “Oregon is more sensitive to manufacturing than most states. And by virtue of its geography, Oregon is more sensitive to exports than most states — as is true for any state with a long coastline, especially on the West Coast — with a lot of trade to Asia.”
Oregon manufacturers import parts to build things like computer chips, transportation equipment and industrial tools. Companies then ship some of their finished products out to global markets. The manufacturing sector employs more than 180,000 Oregonians.
Riccadonna said when President Donald Trump levied tariffs in his first term, the move stalled job growth and slowed investment.
“Now, what has been unveiled by the administration is about 10 times larger than what we saw in 2018,” he said.
Angela Wilhelms is president of Oregon Business and Industry, a trade and lobbying group representing companies of all sizes across the state.
Uncertainty around tariffs have been challenging for Oregon businesses, she said. Now that it’s more clear trade tensions will linger, companies are trying to figure out how the import taxes will affect their operations, customers and supply chains.
“Every day we seem to learn more,” Wilhelms said. “I liken this to, you’re trying to complete a puzzle, and somebody walks by and just dumps another thousand pieces on the table – and takes the picture away from you at the same time. So you don’t really know what it is you’re solving for, but you have to start putting those pieces together.”
Riccadonna said while data coming out this summer will show a clearer picture of how tariffs are playing out in Oregon, economists are already downgrading their forecast.
“At the start of the year, private sector forecasters – and even the Federal Reserve – were looking for national economic growth on the vicinity of about 2%,” he said. “Those forecasts have come down and now they’re closer to one to one and half percent.”
Meanwhile, Riccadonna said he’s looking at some real time indicators, such as jobless claims. Oregon’s unemployment rate has been relatively low at just above 4% for more than a year, but it did tick up slightly to 4.5% in February.
“I would say that it’s a flashing yellow light — not a flashing red light — in terms of signals of economic caution,” Riccadonna said.
This story comes to you from the Northwest News Network, a collaboration between public media organizations in Oregon and Washington.