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Health & Medicine

Using past COVID-19 surges as a guide, Lane County Public Health predicts plateau in new cases

Coronavirus Illustration Herd Immunity
Public Health officials expect Lane County to follow past surge case trajectories and predict a downward arc in new infections by February. But they add, this is a maybe.

For weeks, Lane County has been averaging around 525 new coronavirus cases a day-- with a few explosive exceptions. Wednesday, Public Health reported an apparent leveling of the case trajectory.

In Lane County’s pandemic history, big case ramp ups have typically been followed by a plateau- and then a downward arc. Spokesperson Jason Davis explained.

“If we’re looking at past surges, we believe that we are starting to taper off on our cases,” he said. “It will continue to be at high, high numbers for at least two weeks or so and then in early February we’ll see those case numbers start to drop off.”

Omicron behaves differently than previous variants and Davis said this timeline for case reduction could change based on community behaviors. He added Lane County is also seeing a slight but encouraging downturn in COVID-19 hospitalizations with 58 residents in hospital and 12 in Intensive Care Unit.