Oregon has found a new person to tackle what lawmakers once called “the least enviable job in state government.”
The state announced Wednesday it has hired Carl Riccadonna to serve as the next state economist, a high-profile job with a major say in how much of the state’s tax revenues it ultimately keeps.
Riccadonna would seem to be a good fit. He has spent much of his career in senior roles at firms like Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg, analyzing how the firms might react to large economic trends.
As state economist, it will be Riccadonna’s job to figure out how some of the same trends will impact Oregon’s tax revenues, and to give lawmakers quarterly forecasts of where the state’s finances are heading.
That’s an especially important task in May of odd-numbered years, when the economist delivers a forecast that state lawmakers rely on to set the next two-year budget. The forecast is used as a baseline to determine whether the state issues a “kicker” tax rebate: If personal income tax revenues come in 2% or more higher than expected, the excess is sent back to taxpayers.
Oregon has seen a series of increasing kicker payments every two years for the last decade, culminating in a massive $5.6 billion refund earlier this year. The state is currently on pace to dole out nearly $1 billion in 2026, though that number is far from certain.
Facing increasing pressure to create more accurate revenue forecasts, former longtime state economist Mark McMullen left the job at the end of May. His top deputy, Josh Lehner, is also departing.
Their departures amount to a massive loss of institutional knowledge about the forces impacting Oregon’s economy. Riccadonna and two newly announced deputies will work to fill that void.
Riccadonna is coming to Oregon after spending the last two years as a chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, a global bank. He will be paid $204,192 a year, according to DAS spokesperson Andrea Chipella, and begin the job on Sept. 9.
That means he has a little more than eight months until he delivers the revenue forecast that will determine whether Oregon sees another kicker.
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