As they prepare for a high-stakes legislative session tackling a fentanyl crisis, housing shortage and calls for a boost to school funding, Oregon House members also have a big question looming:
Who will be their next leader?
House Speaker Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis, has told colleagues he’s considering stepping down from his role at the end of the 35-day session that starts in February — a move that would allow him to focus on his campaign for attorney general and give Democrats a more permanent leader heading into next year’s elections.
That’s led to jockeying by two influential House Democrats to succeed Rayfield in one of Oregon’s top political jobs: Majority Leader Julie Fahey, D-Eugene, and Rep. Tawna Sanchez, D-Portland, co-chair of the powerful Joint Ways and Means Committee.
Democrats are debating the best course of action for a leadership swap, and it’s possible a decision could come within weeks. According to four Democratic lawmakers, the party agrees Rayfield should preside over the legislative session that begins Feb 5. But they are considering holding a closed vote on the speakership before the session begins.
Since Democrats have a 35-25 majority, an early nomination would theoretically cement Rayfield’s successor. The victor would not actually take the reins until Rayfield stepped down and a formal vote of the full chamber occurred — possibly just before the session’s end. Having a nominee in place could cut down on accusations that Fahey and Sanchez are granting favors to garner votes, some Democrats said.
The speaker holds broad influence in the Capitol, with a major say in which bills get a vote, how billions of dollars in tax revenue are spent, what committees members sit on, and even whether or not absences from floor sessions are excused.
Neither Fahey nor Sanchez offered comment when asked about their interest in becoming speaker.
Fahey is a business consultant who grew up in Illinois. In 2016, she won the seat formerly held by now-U.S. Representative Val Hoyle. In the House, she’s focused heavily on the state’s housing and homelessness crisis, and helped pass major policy packages on the subject during the COVID-19 pandemic.
After being named majority leader in late 2021, Fahey helped Democrats navigate a tough 2022 election in which the party’s majority shrunk by two seats. The losses were not as heavy as many Republicans expected and Democrats feared.
Sanchez has a background in domestic violence prevention and social services, and helped establish the Native American Youth and Family Center in Portland, where she still works. She has focused on behavioral health issues during her time in the Legislature, and in the 2023 session helped pass a bill that bumps phone taxes to fund the state’s hotline for people in mental health crises. Last year, Sanchez got a promotion when Rayfield tapped her to co-lead the Legislature’s powerful budget writing committee. In that role, she has a say in what priorities get funded — including the pet projects of her fellow lawmakers.
Sanchez is Shoshone-Bannock, Ute, and Carrizo, and if elected would be the first person of color to serve as Oregon speaker. She was the second person of Indigenous descent elected to the state’s Legislature.
Regardless of when he gives up the House’s top role, Rayfield’s decision to run for attorney general means the chamber will see a second new speaker since early 2022, when Tina Kotek stepped down to focus on a run for governor. Kotek had held the job for nearly a decade.
In the case of a vacancy in the office, Speaker Pro Tem Paul Holvey, D-Eugene, would automatically fill in as speaker if Rayfield steps down. But with all 60 House seats up for reelection next year, some Democrats want more permanent leadership in place to fundraise and direct their campaign strategy.
Others say Democrats should stick with Rayfield as long as possible, worrying that jockeying over leadership could destabilize the party during a short session in which Senate Republicans are already signaling they could walk away with little provocation.
As of Thursday afternoon, party members were still contemplating the best course of action. Rayfield’s office said last week that he had not announced any plans to step down early, though three House Democrats said he would go along with whatever his caucus members thought best.
“The Speaker has made a commitment to preside over the house during the February session,” Hazel Tylinski, a spokesperson, said in an email Friday afternoon. “That means that after the February session, regardless of exact timing, leadership of the House chamber will go through a transition. The Speaker has started conversations with our leadership team, our caucus, and Republican leadership about how folks would like that transition to go.”
Democrats are not just weighing a new speaker. Fahey’s interest in that role has inspired a crop of lawmakers to prepare a push to become the next House majority leader. They are said to include Rep. Andrea Valderrama of Portland, Rep. Ben Bowman of Tigard, and Rep. Jason Kropf of Bend.
All three are relatively new to the Legislature: Valderrama and Kropf have served since 2021, and Bowman was first sworn in earlier this year.
Asked about their interest in a role, Bowman and Kropf both said they were busy preparing for session.
“That is what I’m focused on right now,” said Kropf, the co-chair of a special committee tasked with taking on addiction treatment and drug policy. “I’ll think more about the leadership election whenever that time comes.”
Valderrama did not respond to an inquiry.
Democrats are not the only party with a say in who will become the next speaker. Though Republicans don’t have the numbers to elect a speaker on their own, some Democrats worry the GOP could block the formal election of a new speaker by refusing to show up for a vote, if they determined leaving Rayfield in place was better for their interests.
Republicans, in fact, have shown in the past they appreciate Rayfield’s leadership. Earlier this year, when he was reelected speaker at the outset of the legislative session, GOP members wound up voting for Rayfield unanimously when it became clear he had the votes to win — a rare election “by acclamation.”
House Republican Leader Jeff Helfrich, R-Hood River, suggested Friday that his party could oppose an attempt to elect a new speaker until after the 2024 election.
“Republicans voted for Speaker Rayfield as the best available option, and it is our hope that he serves throughout the session,” Helfrich said in a statement. “The position of speaker pro tempore exists to fill that position should it become vacant. When the House meets to elect a new speaker after 2024, we hope to see a Republican lead the chamber to bring balance that is desperately needed in Oregon.”
Rayfield ascended to the role of speaker in early 2022, after Kotek stepped aside to focus on a competitive gubernatorial primary. In a closed nominating vote among Democrats, he defeated state Rep. Janelle Bynum, a Clackamas Democrat who had hoped to be the state’s first Black speaker of the House.
Like Sanchez, Rayfield had served as chair of the budget-writing committee, lending cachet to his speakership bid. Bynum is departing the state House to run for Congress next year.
