MICHAEL DUNNE: I'm Michael Dunne. Just last week during a nice summer day, we all got a reminder of the potential danger facing the Oregon coast. At any moment, a massive earthquake near Russia triggered a tsunami alert for the entire west coast. Luckily, this particular tsunami wasn't a threat to our shores, but it did serve as notice that the potential for a coastal catastrophe is always with us. Today on the show, you'll hear from an expert at the Oregon Office of Emergency Management about our tsunami risk, what could happen if huge waves pound our coast, and what we should all do to prepare. Then in the second part of the show, we'll continue our week-long check in with Lane County Democrats to get their view on how the party is doing after the losses in 2024 and looking ahead to 2026. Althea Rizzo, who is the geologic hazards program coordinator with the Oregon Office of Emergency Management, thanks so much for coming on and talking with us.
ALTHEA RIZZO: Yeah, thank you for inviting me.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Let's start with, you know what happened last week? Talk about this, the potential tsunami that we had that luckily didn't do too much damage to our coast.
ALTHEA RIZZO: Yes. So, there was a very large earthquake of 8.8 magnitude. Just on the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula in eastern Russia. And this caused a tsunami to cross the Pacific basin and impacted Hawaii, Alaska, California, Oregon and many other places around the Pacific basin.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Remind people, I think we get sort of injured two numbers, an 8.8 earthquake is massive, isn't it?
ALTHEA RIZZO: It is very massive. So originally, the earthquake was estimated to be an 8.7 but it states geologic service, the USGS upgraded it to an 8.8 which means it was 40 times larger than an 8.7 so these earthquakes are very large. They release a large amount of energy. That's how they can create such a large tsunami that can cross an ocean.
MICHAEL DUNNE: And in the simplest terms, possible, when an earthquake occurs, why does it often create a tsunami? What is sort of the geologic, geologic factors from an earthquake that then translate into this massive amount of water being moved.
ALTHEA RIZZO:: Sure. So not every offshore earthquake causes a tsunami. It takes a couple of factors. Basically, I'll use the Cascadia subduction zone for an example. We have one plate subducting or diving underneath another plate. And over time, that locked zone builds up so much energy there's so much potential energy to be released during an earthquake. And when it does happen, when that earthquake happens, the North American plate, which is the overriding plate, sort of brings up like a rubber band, and it's when it springs up, it lifts the water column, it lifts the ocean. And that lifting action is what causes the tsunami.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Got it, got it. So, tell us how the alert system works, maybe even take us through what happened. You know, last week with regard to the tsunami, what happens when somebody somewhere knows that an earthquake has triggered a tsunami? Sort of, how does it all kind of pardon the local pun cascade down the line so that people such as you and other people who need to know, know?
ALTHEA RIZZO: Yeah, that's a great question. So, we have the National Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska, there are two Tsunami Warning Centers for the US. The other one is in Hawaii, and that is the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. We get our alerts from the National Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer Alaska. What happens is, when that earthquake happens, it gets registered on the seismographs. There are several different groups that keep an eye on this. The United States geologic service is one of those, and that the information about how big an earthquake is goes out pretty quickly, okay? And the National Tsunami Warning Center gets this information, you know within seconds. And when we see these very large earthquakes, and we know that it's in an area that can cause a tsunami, you know activity erupts, much like when you kick a beehive, very quickly, they are able to assess that this might be what's called tsunami-genic. It might cause a tsunami. And what they usually do is put out what's called an information statement, and most often, after an earthquake, the information statement says there was an earthquake, there's no possible chance of a tsunami. You know, you can go back to drinking your coffee, but when it's a large one like this, very often, they will put parts of the coastline into what's called a watch, and that is, we don't know if a tsunami has been caused yet, but we think it possibly can. So, start thinking about your preparedness, actions that you are going to be taking. It became very quickly apparent that a tsunami was created. And so, the closer in areas the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the west part of the Aleutian Islands, were immediate, almost immediately put into a warning. But sometimes it can take a while to find out if a tsunami has, in fact, been created, and to know how big it might be when it reaches our shores. How we find that out is they can trigger a tsunami DART buoy. This is an ocean floor sensor. It reads the change of pressure of the water column above it, and the other way is through river tide gages, and so when we start seeing impact, we can start seeing how big it was. So Oregon was put under an advisory. Now, an advisory means that the tsunami could be up to about three and a half feet, okay, one meter. And that usually means that there's not going to be inundation. You know, it's not going to be coming up on dry land, but you can still have significant damage and significant currents in bays, harbors, ports, river estuaries. And so it really means that, you know, people just need to stay away from the water, but we're not expecting it to come up onto dry land, a warning means that the tsunami is going to be larger than a meter, larger than 3.33 and a half feet. And that's where we do start to see water coming on to dry land, depending on, you know, tide conditions, weather conditions.
MICHAEL DUNNE: I was going to ask you about that because, you know, what was great was we kind of knew when, almost to the minute, when it was going to potentially hit, even though it wasn't, certainly, certainly wasn't catastrophic. I imagine that's really kind of a math exercise, right? Those buoys you talked about. Is that how you're able to gauge the speed of a tsunami and therefore determine, you know when it might hit a shore like Oregon?
ALTHEA RIZZO: Yeah, so there's a couple of different ways that they are able to figure that information out. One is they have scientific models that they can run. Tsunamis go between five to 600 miles an hour in the open ocean, so you can kind of just ticket along. You know, the miles per hour that they're able to travel. And that gives you kind of a rough estimate that you can do on the back of the napkin. The scientific models are a little bit more precise. They take into condition, type conditions, weather conditions, the undersea topography, you know what? What kind of features do you have underwater? And give you a much more accurate estimation. NOAA, the National Oceanographic administration, is able to also kind of tell you where little fingers of energy, where the waves might be higher, are going to go and. So, they're able to put that that kind of model. And so, we were getting that information, and we're able to see that to the south of us, you know, they were going to be hit with higher waves, more energy. And so, we knew that to the south of us was going to be hit a little bit harder than what we were going to be hit here in the Pacific Northwest. I mean, sorry, then we were going to be hit here in Oregon. Sure, when they cross the dark buoys, they start to give us how much pressure, which tells us how big the tsunami is. And then, of course, the tide gages, the actual observations when they start hitting shore.
MICHAEL DUNNE: I know Hollywood loves a good tidal wave, and they love, you know, movies showing these 1000-foot waves and stuff, but the contextualized force you're talking about, like you said, you know, a meter or two. And that just doesn't sound like a lot, but maybe contextualize what something two to three meters, you know, because it's not so much the height as I understand it, it's all of the energy from that water moving, as you just described, as fast as a jet engine, as fast as a jet plane.
ALTHEA RIZZO: Yeah, absolutely. So, water is a very powerful source. You know, we talk about river flooding, and if it's, you know, as high as your shin, you can get knocked off your feet. And by the way, water is very, very powerful. And you have to remember that a tsunami is not just, you know, one of those regular type waves, which is just the top part of the ocean moving. It's the entire water column of the ocean that is moving. And those waves we build up over time. You know, the first wave comes in, but it doesn't go all the way out before the next one comes in. And so, it doesn't take a large tsunami to cause a lot of damage. In 2011 you know; we were under an advisory. We were getting larger waves than three feet in Oregon. Believe it or not, down in the south part of Oregon, some of the waves were as high as two meters, but it was a very low tide when they were hitting. So, we were very lucky that it was low tide. If it would hit at high tide, or, you know, flooding season, we would have seen much more damage. But even with it not coming on shore, not, you know, coming on to dry land, there were millions of dollars of damage to ports in Depoe Bay and Port Orford and Brookings Harbor, tsunami in 2011
MICHAEL DUNNE: Two-part question, and I know it's difficult to answer, but do your best. How prepared are we? That's part one, and then secondarily, you know, kind of as a this was a good this is a good reminder. We had a tsunami advisory just last week. What are things people should do, especially on the coast, to better prepare for a potential tsunami?
ALTHEA RIZZO: Well, the first thing to do is know where the tsunami evacuation zones are, and there are a number of places online you can go to input your address and find out if your house is on in the inundation zone, or, I should say, and you can find out if your house is in the evacuation zone, or if the hotel you're staying at is in the evacuation zone. You know, knowing you're hazardous and what kind of hazards might be in the area you're vacationing in is really important. The second one is having a plan. We know that even Cascadia is survivable if you plan properly and know what the hazards are and practice evacuating from wherever it is that you may live in the evacuation zone, or if you work in the evacuation zone, practice the routes out. So, in the tsunami last week, we got plenty of warning that it was coming, because it was coming from far away, sure, and we have great systems for getting that information out. If Cascadia happens, none of those systems are going to be able to send out an alert in time, because some coast, you know, it's within minutes that the first wave comes ashore. And we're talking about much larger waves. We're talking 2011 Japanese size waves, and nobody's going to be setting off an alarm in time to tell you to evacuate. So that's why we say if you fill an earthquake on the coast, get to high ground as soon as possible. Go on foot and take as many people with you. Don't. Or try to pack anything. If you're if you don't have anything packed before this happens, you're not going to make it out if you try to pack something, you just need to get out and get up as quickly as possible. On foot, you're probably not going to be able to drive anywhere because of the liquefaction, because of all the damage to the roadways, things that may have toppled down into the road. So knowing are you in the evacuation zone? Do you even need to evacuate? Because if you're not in the evacuation zone, you don't have to go anywhere and then practice that route, because you never know when that earthquake might happen.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Althea, my last question for you is this, and I'm not asking you to weigh into any of the politics of it all, but I am. I am curious, as a state agency, do you and your colleagues have some concerns about some of the federal cuts to some of the institutions you've already talked about, like NOAA and whatnot. Are there some concerns that the system that worked well last week might not work as well if staffing and those sorts of things continue to happen?
ALTHEA RIZZO: We just have to hope that in the future they will be okay. There's a lot of uncertainty and unknowns right now for now, the system is holding, and we'll see what the future holds.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Good enough. Good enough. Althea Rizzo, who is with the Office of Emergency Management, giving us kind of the tsunami 101, really appreciate your time. And as last week showed us, it's never too early to prepare and to think about the potential for tsunamis. Thanks again. So much.
ALTHEA RIZZO: Thank you for having me
MICHAEL DUNNE: Since the 2024 election, Democrats have been doing a lot of soul searching. Well, we wanted to find out what local Democrats think. So, we're featuring a new interview each day this week to hear what's going on. I recently met with Lane County Democrats at a downtown restaurant to hear what they had to say about where the party is, how its leaders are doing to combat the Trump administration and what their prospects are for the midterms.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Just tell me your name.
SUSAN FISHER: Susan Fisher.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Obviously, Oregon, Eugene, very blue areas, obviously. But I mean, you know, there are a lot more rural parts of the state, which might be more conservative. Do you feel as though the sort of the rural, urban divide, red versus blue? Do you feel as though you know locally that Democrats can bridge some of that divide? Do you think it's important to do that, or do you feel as though it's more important to kind of just make sure that you're working on the bread-and-butter issues of the blue parts of Oregon?
SUSAN FISHER: Well, probably before the election, I would have said what I've said as a political person most of my life. I would say reaching across, having conversations, finding common ground is essential. I've changed really okay. I've changed because I think we have to feather our own nest and figure out how to communicate to people who are in the middle, who don't have doctrinaire views. They may have voted for Trump, they may have voted for other Republican candidates, but they're not locked in. And I think rather than go to the extremes and try to pull them in, we need to figure out how to listen really actively, listen, hear what they say, and not respond with policy papers, because even locally, we are good at figuring out and presenting what is good policy and a good benefit, we have to hear these people and respond to them with no more than I was in advertising for a long time, no more than 3.3 good points, because that's what people can take in, usually Not policy. But here are three things that will help you, that, from what I hear, this will help you.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Okay. Some of the narrative after the last presidential election was that Democrats might have been focused too much on social issues and not enough about economic issues. You know, what do you think is important, the sort of the coalition coalescing message from Democrats heading into the midterms? What do you think it needs to be?
SUSAN FISHER: It does need to be more of an economic issue. And economic issues are mean. How do I pay my rent, how do I get a mortgage? How do I even qualify for a credit card or a debit card? So, they're very granular economic issues, and I think we've learned that social issues can be such a divider and so fraught with so much anger and insecurity and unhappiness. If I ran the circus, I would back away from such a strong focus on social issues.
MICHAEL DUNNE: Not necessarily ideologues, maybe not necessarily even Trump's base, but those who maybe voted for him for the first time because of economic issues or something like that. Do you feel like a lot of people are sort of waking up saying, Boy, this is not what I wanted?
SUSAN FISHER: I think it's wish casting to think it's a lot of people. Okay, I travel a lot, and I'm friendly and talk to people, and I'm curious. I think there's some people who are beginning to question a little bit on a few things. I don't think there's this, this sudden epiphany. We'd like to think so it would be pretty to think so, Hemingway said, but I don't think it's necessarily the case. Least yet it's, I mean, we have to almost hit rock bottom, and they and folks have to feel that they have to have to hit the bottom with it in order to feel the pain and say, oh gosh, no, this can't be.
MICHAEL DUNNE: That was our conversation with Susan Fisher of the Lane County Democrats. We'll bring you more conversations with the group all this week. All episodes of Oregon On The Record are available as a podcast at KLCC.org. Tomorrow, you'll hear from an OPB reporter about her recent story, pointing out that the Portland mayor has recently moved the city into compliance with the Trump administration's anti-DEI policies, and what that could mean for other Oregon cities. I'm Michael Dunne, and this has been Oregon On The Record from KLCC, thanks for listening.
