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Michael Dunne: I’m Michael Dunne. Oregon is a pretty blue state, and the state’s most populous city and county are also deep blue. So when it comes to electing a governor, Oregon has voted solidly Democratic for the past 40 years. Could this year be different? Today on the show, our colleague at OPB, politics reporter Dirk VanderHart, joins us to break down a poll the station recently commissioned, which shows a dead-even race between Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan. Could Drazan pull off a shocker and upset Kotek, which would send reverberations across the nation? The OPB poll seems to suggest that deep dissatisfaction with the status quo in the state could fuel an epic upset. Dirk VanderHart, OPB’s politics reporter. Dirk, it’s always great to talk to you. Thanks so much for coming on.
Dirk VanderHart: Yeah, great to be here, Michael.
Dunne: Well, OPB commissioned a poll looking at the governor’s race. Tell us some of the top-line findings of that poll.
VanderHart: Yeah, it’s a bit of a process, so let me walk you through it. OPB polled 915 likely voters throughout the state of Oregon to get a sense of where we stand roughly a month out from Election Day. The first thing we asked is, hey, if you had to vote today, which gubernatorial candidate would you pick? What came back there was 46% of folks said Christine Drazan, 44% said Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek, 3% said Brett Smith, who’s a Pacific Green Party candidate, and 8% were undecided. Drazan, I should say, is a Republican state senator. So Drazan had a narrow lead at first blush. I should mention that the margin of error for this poll is 3.24 percentage points. But then our pollsters said, OK, undecided voters, what candidate would you lean toward? We know you haven’t made up your mind, but what candidate would you lean toward if you had to vote today? And that gave us a slightly different result. We got 47% of respondents saying Drazan, 46% saying Kotek, 3% with Smith, that Pacific Green Party candidate, and 4% said no, I’m not going to answer, I’m still undecided. So basically, we came away with Christine Drazan having, we think, around a 1-point lead at that stage in the race when we were polling. It is very tight right now, Michael.
Dunne: Yeah, and of course these two went at it last election cycle, and it was a close race. Maybe you didn’t have polling from last time, but you’ve observed these candidates in the two races. Was it pretty close last time too, about a month out?
VanderHart: That’s a very good question. The complexion of last time’s race in 2022 was different. If you’ll remember, Michael, we had a very well-funded, sophisticated independent, or nonaffiliated, candidate in Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic state senator who ran a really energetic campaign. So that kind of upended the math of the race. But it’s a really good point, because yes, we’ve seen this movie before. In 2022, most of the polls through October found that Christine Drazan had a narrow lead, so not too different from what we’re seeing now. And then once November came around, that seemed to collapse. Essentially, voters got their ballots, really grappled with whether they might vote for a Republican when that is maybe not how they normally align, and came to the conclusion they wouldn’t. So that is one thing that is inspiring me to take this with a slight grain of salt. We don’t know if the lead she seems to have right now is going to collapse again.
Dunne: OK. What other things did the poll find? I know some of the polling asked questions taking the temperature of the state. Give us your best guess on the mood in the state right now and how that might be reflected in voting for governor.
VanderHart: Sure. I would call the mood very pessimistic right now, Michael, and frankly, it has been for quite some time. For years now, Oregon voters have suggested they think the state is not headed in the right direction, and that is certainly the case in our poll, which found that 58% of voters we talked to believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to 29% who think it’s on the right track. That extends to leadership. Gov. Kotek has just a 38% favorable rating, compared to 60% who have an unfavorable opinion of her. That is a lot worse than Christine Drazan, who is at 45% favorable and 45% unfavorable. So people are not happy with how the state is being led at this point, and that also comes across in some of the issue questions we asked. When we asked voters what the No. 1 problem facing the state is, it probably won’t surprise you that we heard a lot of economic concerns. The top five included cost of living, high taxes, housing costs, and the economy and jobs. Those are not things that, if you’re the leader of a state, you want people to be really angry about. But not just that. We also heard that poor leadership is one of the top concerns of voters, along with homelessness. None of that reflects super well on the vibe of voters toward Gov. Kotek, and that is one reason why this seems to be so close at this point. But we also know that it’s a midterm with President Donald Trump in office, which is probably going to give Democrats a bit of a boost nationwide. I think the question is how that manifests here in Oregon.
Dunne: OK, so Kotek is handicapped by being the incumbent at a time when public sentiment is very pessimistic. Of course Drazan, to some degree, and certainly this is what the Kotek campaign is trying to paint her with, is tied to another very unpopular politician in the president. Is that her biggest weakness right now?
VanderHart: Yeah. Look, it’s never easy to run as a Republican statewide in Oregon. We haven’t had a Republican governor for 40 years. But yes, I think you are very right that President Trump is not popular in this state. We actually asked voters about this. Thirty-seven percent of our respondents had a favorable opinion of him. That’s just 1 point lower than the share who had a favorable opinion of Gov. Kotek, so they are not too far apart there, which I always find a little surprising. But it is often mentioned when people talk about this race that Gov. Kotek rarely answers a question without linking her Republican opponent to Trump. His policies are not popular here. People don’t like the aggressive immigration enforcement. They don’t like the tariffs. They don’t like the fact that he wanted to send National Guard members into Portland. There are plenty of reasons why Kotek would want to link Drazan to Trump, and that is what she seems to do at every available opportunity.
Dunne: OK. I think back to when I was in school, and something you used to do to a friend or an enemy was tape a “kick me” sign on their back. It seems like in this campaign, each candidate wants to tape a “data center” sign on the opponent’s back. Talk about that, because to me that is really fascinating. It seems like each side is saying, “Oh no, the other one wants data centers.” What’s going on here?
VanderHart: Part of this is that the politics of data centers have caught everyone by surprise. These things have been around in Oregon for decades. I think we got some of our first ones in Hood River or The Dalles, and now there are some in the western part of the Portland metro and some in central Oregon. They’ve been around for a while, and it hasn’t been a huge issue until this AI boom, where suddenly there are these massive facilities springing up around the country. They’re feeding into people’s distrust of AI, and people don’t love tax breaks for corporations. In Oregon at least, when corporations spend big money on these data centers, they often get pretty sizable tax breaks. So all of a sudden, within the last year or maybe even less, this has become a really big rallying point for opponents of data centers, and politicians are scrambling to calibrate themselves to that. That’s what we’re seeing in this race. Gov. Kotek last year did not want to take any big steps on data centers because she wanted to wait for more evidence. Now she’s saying we’re going to ask for a moratorium. Christine Drazan released her policy platform earlier this year, and it didn’t have anything about data centers in it. Then suddenly she tacked something on saying we need a moratorium on data centers. So they’re actually matching each other at this point, but they are arguing about who has been more favorable to data centers in the past. Gov. Kotek has been in power for a long time. She’s been a leader at a time when the government was approving and offering these tax breaks. Christine Drazan didn’t vote for the bill that says, hey, data centers, you have to pay for your own power costs, you can’t pass them on to consumers. So that’s a lot of the debate we’re hearing right now on this issue.
Dunne: OK. What’s the spending been like in these campaigns? We were talking off mic, and here in Eugene I’m seeing anti-Kotek billboards that we did not see last time. So I’m wondering, what does the spending look like?
VanderHart: I think that’s so interesting, because that speaks to part of Drazan’s tactic here. She believes, and the numbers reflect this, that people are just not happy with the state of things and maybe not happy with the governor. So suddenly, in Eugene and the more urban parts of Lane County, you are seeing her make a play for those disaffected voters, where maybe a Republican wouldn’t have played before. I don’t have the most current spending figures, but they have been spending apace. They’ve both had enough money to wallpaper YouTube, or whatever your streaming service of choice is, with ads, and to put them on the air on broadcast networks as well. Here’s the big question, though. They’ve actually raised a similar amount of money in the last two years, but there are a couple of problems for Drazan. One, she had to get through a very competitive Republican primary that drew down a lot of her war chest, so she has far less cash on hand at this point than the governor. I haven’t checked today, but last I checked, last week, she had about $1 million and the governor had $4 million, though it oscillates. The bigger potential problem for Drazan is that she does not have a couple of the key donors she had last time. The Republican Governors Association, which supports GOP candidates all over the country, has not gotten into this race yet. In 2022, they gave Drazan $7 million, obviously a big amount of money that she would like to have in this last month. And Phil Knight, the Nike co-founder and a big Republican booster in the state, often donates $1 million or more to Republican gubernatorial candidates and has sat this one out so far. So there is a question: Can those billboards continue in Eugene? Will Drazan have to cut her ad spending in these crucial days of the race, or can she find enough money to get her through it? I think that will be interesting to see.
Dunne: Obviously, polling is a snapshot in time. Is there something that could happen in the last month of this race that could hurt or help either candidate? You just talked about spending, and that obviously can matter. Maybe not necessarily an “October surprise,” but is there something, I don’t know, Moda Center funding or some kind of crazy thing, that could possibly tilt this race one way or another?
VanderHart: That’s a really good question. There doesn’t seem to be anything hanging in the balance like that. The state has approved funding for the Moda Center now. If Tom Dundon says in the next month, which we don’t expect, hey, I don’t care what you do, I’m leaving, the Trail Blazers are leaving, that would obviously be a seismic thing for basketball fans around Oregon. I don’t know that it moves the needle. There are not many things on my radar right now that I think would reshape this so significantly that it absolutely changes the stakes. But you all hosted a debate last week in Eugene, and we have a couple more of those. I think both of these candidates are very sharp and pretty good on their toes. We’re not going to see something like the Joe Biden debate in ’24. But unexpected things do happen. Could something interesting get people thinking one way or the other? I suppose that’s possible. Obviously, I can’t predict the future, so I have no idea if something like that is in store.
Dunne: Have you heard any rumors that the president might come and campaign on behalf of Drazan? And if he did, would Kotek’s camp welcome that?
VanderHart: Oh, they would absolutely welcome that. I would be very, very shocked if Trump came, for several reasons. One, I think he’s got way bigger concerns with control of Congress and the Senate, and shoring that up is primary for him, I would assume. Two, he often likes to bet on a winner. Maybe that’s not the case this year, but typically he likes to have a sense that his candidates stand a strong chance, and I’m not sure he would be so convinced about Drazan. And three, I don’t think she would invite him. I think that would be a very unwise move for the campaign, because she’s not disavowing Trump, but she’s striving to show some independence from him and that she is a candidate who is going to fight for Oregonians, whether that means agreeing with him or disagreeing with him. Oregonians are her north star, so having him come would be very counterproductive for her.
Dunne: OK, Dirk, my last question for you is this: It’s sounding like national Democrats are pretty bullish, and that there could be a blue wave in the midterms, which historically happens. It could be a blue tsunami, as some of the nomenclature goes. How shocking would it be if a blue state like Oregon, during a blue wave, loses the governor’s mansion?
VanderHart: Oh, it would be absolutely shocking. It would shock the national pundits. People are so used to thinking of Oregon as this deep blue state that’s untouchable by Republicans. Those of us who are here know that’s not the case. It always feels a little closer on the ground, even if it doesn’t shake out that way. It feels really close. There is a robust base of people who vote Republican here. But for it to come this year? When I talk to Democrats, many of them don’t think the governor is running the strongest campaign. They think she’s got real liabilities. If Kamala Harris were president, this would be very, very, very interesting. They think she’ll eke it out just by virtue of where the national political momentum is. But they do say that one of these days, the fact that people aren’t happy with some of these Democratic policies and with the state is going to catch up with them. I don’t think it’s going to be this year. If it doesn’t happen this year of all years, very likely, we will see. But yeah, I would be very surprised. I think everyone would be very surprised if Oregon went that direction. And I’m open to surprises. Surprises are part of the fun of this job, Michael.
Dunne: And he does it better than anybody. Dirk VanderHart, politics reporter for OPB, thanks so much for spending some time with us.
VanderHart: Yeah, it’s my pleasure, as always.
Dunne: Before we go, I want to bring back our membership director for a check-in on the last day of our fall membership drive. KLCC membership director Brooke Bumgardner, it’s great to see you again. Thanks for coming in.
Brooke Bumgardner: Thanks for having me back.
Dunne: Yeah, I should tell people that during our pledge drive, Brooke basically lives at the station. You are so busy. How are things going?
Bumgardner: It is the last day of our fall membership drive. When I was on your program last week, I said that I actually really like membership drive time, because it’s a time to connect with our members, and things are going really well. We’ve heard from a lot of the usual suspects, so to speak, the KLCC stans, as I like to call them, and then some new folks as well. It’s always fun to hear from new members.
Dunne: Yeah, and you obviously staff the phones and organize the staff who are answering the phones, and you also look at what people say on the website when they pledge. Give us an indication of what they’re telling you, especially at this interesting time, when we know we’re completely funded by community support.
Bumgardner: Yeah, people are still really concerned about federal funding being taken away from public media. A lot of people brought that up when they called to donate. They had some strong feelings about it. They want to see KLCC thrive despite the rescission, and so they are calling to support KLCC. A lot of people are also, frankly, feeling the pinch of the economy. A lot of people said, “I’m on a fixed income. This is what I can give each month.” And I want to tell them that this makes a huge difference, especially when we all come together to do it. People are also really concerned about the increased consolidation of media outlets, like we’re hearing about today with Paramount. But I would say the No. 1 comment we get from people when they call to donate is, “I don’t know what I would do without you guys.” That’s verbatim.
Dunne: Wow, that’s great to hear. In addition to what you just said, what is the mood of people as they’re giving? Obviously you talked about some of the challenges, but is there optimism when people call in and talk about why and how they’re giving?
Bumgardner: There is definitely optimism. Overall, I would say it’s a lot of gratitude for the work of our team and for the existence of KLCC and public media. And it’s so interesting, this whole back-and-forth moment of gratitude. I’m thanking them for their support, but they’re thanking us just so earnestly. I spoke to a woman named Victoria, and she had written a poem. Well, not quite a poem, but she had taken the letters K-L-C-C and written a word for each of them: K for kindness, L for learning, C for clarity and C for courage.
Dunne: Wow!
Bumgardner: Yeah, that’s so cool. She teared up as she talked to me about what that meant to her. We had people calling in from their fishing boat. Shout-out to the Timmy Boy. People called while they were feeding their chickens. So it’s just Oregonians going about their Oregon business and taking the time to give us a call or go online. And I love it, because we got to reconnect. We talked to MJ in Prineville. We know her and her dog, Dan, and she informed me that Dan had passed this summer, and she and I shed a tear together over the phone. So it really is a community coming together. I like it. I’m feeling nourished.
Dunne: Well, we have the best listeners, supporters and members, and we have the best membership director, Brooke Bumgardner. Thank you so much for all that you do for the station, and thanks for coming on.
Bumgardner: Thank you.
Dunne: That’s the show for today. All episodes of “Oregon on the Record” are available as a podcast at klcc.org. Tomorrow on the show: No one wants to see a cardiologist, and two local cardiologists join us to talk about the ways they’re helping patients proactively avoid such visits in the future. I’m Michael Dunne, host of “Oregon on the Record.” Thanks for listening.
